Winner probability ≠ win by this method.
The percentages describe the winner only; they do not estimate a win by that method. Methods have not been tested by the model. Decision means a judges’ decision; KO/TKO includes stoppages from strikes.
NOCHE UFC / THE CALLS ARE IN
Here’s what I’m prepared
to be wrong about.
Thirteen matchups. Open one for the pick, the evidence and the awkward bit. I’ve left that last part in against my better judgement.
A SMALL MATTER OF COLOUR
Colour = our pick. Grey = the opponent.
These are forecasts; results are not yet known.
THE NUMBERS, APPARENTLY
Raw probability of the picked fighter winning.
Experimental estimates, with uneven evidence.
THE PROFESSOR INSISTS
A separate judgement if the pick wins.
It is not a model-tested method prediction.
THE COMPLETE CARD
Thirteen calls. Open to scrutiny.
13 matchups
Showing 13 matchups
OUR PICKJeanSilva
51%PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick wins
OPPONENTJoseMiguel Delgado
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 51.2%
OUR PICKJeanSilva
51%
PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick winsOPPONENTJoseMiguel Delgado
Why Jean Silva?
Silva has the stronger opponent history, including his win over Arnold Allen. Delgado has the better recorded striking margin and longer reach. This is effectively even.
KO/TKO if Jean Silva wins
Four of Silva's six captured UFC wins were stoppages by strikes, including one doctor stoppage; five were finishes overall. That makes a striking stoppage the method lean if he wins.
The Goblin would like a word
Delgado has never been stopped in his five captured UFC bouts; his only defeat and his last three fights went to decisions. Silva also won his latest bout by decision, and the winner forecast itself is close.
OUR PICKBrandonMoreno
63%PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick wins
OPPONENTJosephMorales
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 63.1%
OUR PICKBrandonMoreno
63%
PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick winsOPPONENTJosephMorales
Why Brandon Moreno?
Moreno has stronger opposition experience, higher striking output and better recorded takedown defence. His two consecutive losses and Morales's two submission wins temper the pick.
Decision if Brandon Moreno wins
Five of Moreno's eleven captured UFC wins were decisions, including his two latest wins over Albazi and Erceg. A points win is the cautious lean.
The Goblin would like a word
Moreno has six UFC finish wins too, so decision is only the largest single category. Morales has a prior KO loss and won all three of his captured UFC victories by submission.
OUR PICKTommyMcMillen
69%PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick wins
OPPONENTMarwanRahiki
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 68.6%
OUR PICKTommyMcMillen
69%
PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick winsOPPONENTMarwanRahiki
Why Tommy McMillen?
McMillen's two UFC wins show an exceptional striking-volume advantage; he landed 252 significant strikes against Montes. Both fighters have only two UFC bouts, so this estimate is fragile.
KO/TKO if Tommy McMillen wins
Both of McMillen's UFC wins ended by strikes, against Zecchini and Montes. His observed UFC winning methods support a TKO lean.
The Goblin would like a word
This is only two UFC bouts. Rahiki is also 2–0 with two stoppages and no captured UFC loss, so there is no demonstrated UFC stoppage vulnerability to rely on.
OUR PICKManonFiorot
61%PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick wins
OPPONENTAlexaGrasso
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 61.2%
OUR PICKManonFiorot
61%
PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick winsOPPONENTAlexaGrasso
Why Manon Fiorot?
Fiorot has the stronger recorded striking differential and takedown defence, with an 8–1 UFC record. Grasso's recent stoppage of Maycee Barber is clear counterevidence.
Decision if Manon Fiorot wins
Five of Fiorot's eight UFC wins were decisions. Four of Grasso's five UFC defeats also went to the judges.
The Goblin would like a word
Fiorot stopped Jasudavicius in her latest bout, and Grasso returned with a knockout of Barber. Their recent finishes keep a striking finish possible.
OUR PICKWaldoCortes Acosta
58%PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick wins
OPPONENTCurtisBlaydes
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 57.8%
OUR PICKWaldoCortes Acosta
58%
PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick winsOPPONENTCurtisBlaydes
Why Waldo Cortes Acosta?
Cortes-Acosta has three stoppage wins in his last five and the better recent knockdown rate. Blaydes's wrestling and control history give him a clear route to overturn the pick.
KO/TKO if Waldo Cortes Acosta wins
Cortes Acosta has five KO/TKO wins in ten UFC victories. Five of Blaydes' six UFC defeats were striking stoppages, including a doctor stoppage; Waldo's latest three wins were knockouts.
The Goblin would like a word
Half of Waldo's UFC wins were decisions, and Blaydes' latest defeat went the distance. Blaydes also offers a wrestling route that makes the winner call uncertain.
OUR PICKDavidMartinez
72%PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick wins
OPPONENTDanIge
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 72.1%
OUR PICKDavidMartinez
72%
PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick winsOPPONENTDanIge
Why David Martinez?
Martinez is 3–0 in the UFC, including wins over Font and Vera; Ige is 1–4 in his last five. Ige's first bantamweight appearance makes the division change an additional uncertainty.
Decision if David Martinez wins
Martinez won his last two UFC bouts by decision; nine of Ige's ten UFC defeats went to the judges.
The Goblin would like a word
Ige was knocked out in his latest bout, and Martinez has a UFC knockout win. This is Ige's first announced bantamweight bout, so prior featherweight durability may not transfer directly.
OPPONENTTimElliott
63%PICK TO WINSubmissionif the pick wins
OUR PICKEdgarChairez
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 62.5%
OPPONENTTimElliott
63%
PICK TO WINSubmissionif the pick winsOUR PICKEdgarChairez
Why Edgar Chairez?
Chairez has three straight wins and a substantial age advantage. Elliott's takedowns and control remain a serious counter: the model's lean does not establish that Chairez can stop his wrestling.
Submission if Edgar Chairez wins
Three of Chairez' four UFC wins came by submission, while Elliott has five submission losses in twelve UFC defeats.
The Goblin would like a word
Elliott's other seven defeats went to decisions, and he has three UFC submission wins himself. Chairez also needed a split decision against Bunes.
OUR PICKIgnacioBahamondes
68%PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick wins
OPPONENTMuslimSalikhov
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 68.4%
OUR PICKIgnacioBahamondes
68%
PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick winsOPPONENTMuslimSalikhov
Why Ignacio Bahamondes?
Bahamondes has the youth, reach and historical striking-output advantages. He has lost his last two, and his move from lightweight to welterweight makes past rates imperfect comparisons.
KO/TKO if Ignacio Bahamondes wins
Three of Bahamondes' six UFC wins were KO/TKOs; Salikhov has three KO/TKO losses among five UFC defeats, including his latest bout.
The Goblin would like a word
Bahamondes also has two submission wins, and his last two bouts were decision losses. Moving from lightweight to welterweight changes the matchup context; prior finishing power is not proven at this new weight.
OUR PICKYousriBelgaroui
82%PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick wins
OPPONENTDjordenSantos
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 82.3%
OUR PICKYousriBelgaroui
82%
PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick winsOPPONENTDjordenSantos
Why Yousri Belgaroui?
Belgaroui outlanded his first two UFC opponents 196–40 in significant strikes, winning both by stoppage. That supports the direction; two bouts and his conceded takedowns do not justify treating 82% as dependable.
KO/TKO if Yousri Belgaroui wins
Both Belgaroui UFC wins ended by strikes, against Bekoev and Abdul-Malik.
The Goblin would like a word
Only two UFC bouts are available. Santos has not been knocked out in his three captured UFC bouts; his defeats were a decision and a submission.
OPPONENTDrakkarKlose
73%PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick wins
OUR PICKTommyGantt
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 73.4%
OPPONENTDrakkarKlose
73%
PICK TO WINKO/TKOif the pick winsOUR PICKTommyGantt
Why Tommy Gantt?
Gantt's debut showed six takedowns, substantial control and a TKO. However, it was his only UFC bout. Klose is 10–3 in the archive, and Elo favours Klose: this is a particularly questionable confidence estimate.
KO/TKO if Tommy Gantt wins
Gantt's only UFC win was a TKO, and two of Klose's three UFC defeats were KO/TKOs. Gantt's current official biography also reports six consecutive finishes, comprising four TKOs and two guillotines.
The Goblin would like a word
One UFC appearance is a very small sample. Klose has gone to decisions in nine of thirteen UFC bouts, and Gantt's official biography lists five professional submission wins, so submission or decision remain credible alternatives.
OUR PICKRafaGarcia
61%PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick wins
OPPONENTRongzhu
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 60.5%
OUR PICKRafaGarcia
61%
PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick winsOPPONENTRongzhu
Why Rafa Garcia?
Garcia's recent wins and opponent-adjusted record support a modest lean. Rongzhu also has three straight wins. Adding his omitted May Road result reduces Garcia's estimate from 64.0% to 60.5%; full statistics were not added.
Decision if Rafa Garcia wins
Five of Garcia's seven UFC wins were decisions, including two of his latest three wins. His captured UFC history supports a points win.
The Goblin would like a word
Garcia also stopped Gordon recently. Rongzhu's additional May 2026 TKO win and three older Road wins sit outside the frozen six-bout history; the disclosed one-result update remains incomplete.
OUR PICKSeanKing
51%PICK TO WINUnclearif the pick wins
OPPONENTJessieRosas
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 51.3%
OUR PICKSeanKing
51%
PICK TO WINUnclearif the pick winsOPPONENTJessieRosas
Why Sean King?
Neither fighter has a recorded UFC bout in the model. There is no demonstrated performance advantage behind this small lean; treat the fight as a toss-up.
Unclear if Sean King wins
There is not enough reliable matchup evidence to choose a method. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts.
The Goblin would like a word
Regional sources suggest a possible striking-finish route for King but disagree on his complete professional record. Rosas' official profile lists two KO wins and four submission wins, so the absence of UFC history does not imply a lack of finishing ability.
OPPONENTJJAldrich
57%PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick wins
OUR PICKReginaTarin
The case. And the catch.Raw estimate 57.1%
OPPONENTJJAldrich
57%
PICK TO WINDecisionif the pick winsOUR PICKReginaTarin
Why Regina Tarin?
Tarin showed high output in her debut win, but it is one fifteen-minute sample. Aldrich has won four of her last five; both Elo and the older model favour Aldrich. This is a disputed, low-evidence pick.
Decision if Regina Tarin wins
Tarin won her only UFC bout by decision. Aldrich has gone to decisions in fourteen of seventeen UFC bouts, including four of her six losses.
The Goblin would like a word
Tarin has only one UFC appearance. Her current official biography lists four professional KO wins and two submission wins, so her wider record contains substantial finishing threat.
Nothing matches that lot.
Clear the filters and we’ll start again.THERE IS, REGRETTABLY, PAPERWORK
The small print.
He’s made it quite large.
These are raw research probabilities. Supporting histories are not feature attributions or causal explanations. Small samples and incomplete historical coverage weaken several estimates.
60.5% updated. 64.0% preserved.
One newly verified Road result reduces Garcia from 64.0% in the original sealed issue to 60.5% in a separate result-only calculation. Full paired statistics were not added. Three older Road wins also remain outside this limited calculation. The original forecasts, models and data remain preserved. A missing-stat bout also advances the existing recency weights; no new strike or control counts were invented.
THE ORIGINAL / 7 SEPTEMBEROpen the sealed forecast record+
These V3 forecasts were recorded before the event alongside V2 and Elo comparisons. One card is a pilot; it cannot establish a stable success rate. Probabilities remain experimental.
| Announced matchup | V3 pick | Raw chance | Prior UFC bouts first / second |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silvavs Jose Miguel Delgado | Jean Silva | 51.2% | 7 / 5 |
| Brandon Morenovs Joseph Morales | Brandon Moreno | 63.1% | 20 / 5 |
| Tommy McMillenvs Marwan Rahiki | Tommy McMillen | 68.6% | 2 / 2 |
| Manon Fiorotvs Alexa Grasso | Manon Fiorot | 61.2% | 9 / 15 |
| Waldo Cortes Acostavs Curtis Blaydes | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 57.8% | 13 / 21 |
| David Martinezvs Dan Ige | David Martinez | 72.1% | 3 / 21 |
| Tim Elliottvs Edgar Chairez | Edgar Chairez | 62.5% | 22 / 7 |
| Ignacio Bahamondesvs Muslim Salikhov | Ignacio Bahamondes | 68.4% | 10 / 14 |
| Yousri Belgarouivs Djorden Santos | Yousri Belgaroui | 82.3% | 2 / 3 |
| Drakkar Klosevs Tommy Gantt | Tommy Gantt | 73.4% | 13 / 1 |
| Rafa Garciavs Rongzhu | Rafa Garcia | 64.0% | 11 / 6 |
| Sean Kingvs Jessie Rosas | Sean King | 51.3% | 0 / 0 |
| JJ Aldrichvs Regina Tarin | Regina Tarin | 57.1% | 17 / 1 |
One older-source pairing is retained for reconciliation in the complete forecast file.
The general matchup workbench uses the original acquired archive: 2,770 historical fighters, data through 5 September 2026. A known history gap affects Rongzhu. The briefing above adds one verified Road result; full statistics remain unavailable.