{ "schema_version": 1, "created_at_utc": "2026-09-08T08:30:14.388417+00:00", "event_date": "2026-09-12", "event_name": "Noche UFC: Silva vs Delgado", "analysis_type": "Qualitative analyst method leans conditional on unchanged existing winner picks; not a trained, calibrated or backtested method model.", "selection_rule": "Inspect all captured UFC winning methods for each existing picked winner, opponent losing methods, current official context and available sample size. Keep explicit counter-evidence; do not produce percentages or round forecasts. One debutant matchup remains unassigned.", "method_grouping": "All decisions grouped as Decision. KO/TKO includes doctor stoppages; these remain distinguishable in raw counts. No Contest is not a defeat.", "data_limits": [ "Counts describe the frozen primary UFC corpus, not complete professional records. UFCStats bout URLs are retained provenance, not a claim that every page was independently refreshed during this method review.", "Current official athlete pages may contain stale biography fields; dated result narratives and exact recorded bouts are preferred.", "Regional and Road results stay separate from frozen UFC counts and the winner model.", "Picking both winner and method adds uncertainty; the winner percentages do not express the joint probability.", "No live odds, invented method probabilities, finish rounds, betting returns or new model fitting." ], "input_hashes": { "supporting_evidence_sha256": "775e04932ba784add45c6e33a8c11a012ad99429a4d9d3b956ebafcd2fb57e47", "frozen_fights_sha256": "b40af6a8885ad00a9434b8731f2d64b4b50e0e88391132c42a881c832e3cb1cd", "sealed_predictions_sha256": "781131f8efd97d74205099225278eadbf5377c619eb5ab191affab594d3591a9" }, "forecasts": [ { "a": "Jean Silva", "b": "Jose Miguel Delgado", "pick": "Jean Silva", "method": "KO/TKO", "method_label": "KO/TKO", "conditional_on_existing_picked_winner": true, "reason": "Four of Silva's six captured UFC wins were stoppages by strikes, including one doctor stoppage; five were finishes overall. That makes a striking stoppage the method lean if he wins.", "caution": "Delgado has never been stopped in his five captured UFC bouts; his only defeat and his last three fights went to decisions. Silva also won his latest bout by decision, and the winner forecast itself is close.", "evidence_strength": "moderate", "strength_meaning": "Qualitative support from the available histories; not a calibrated likelihood or a model score.", "counts": { "picked_fighter": { "fighter": "Jean Silva", "fighter_id": "52ef95b5860fb28c", "captured_UFC_bouts": 7, "record": { "win": 6, "loss": 1, "draw": 0, "no_contest": 0 }, "win_methods_grouped": { "KO/TKO": 4, "Submission": 1, "Decision": 1 }, "win_methods_raw": { "KO/TKO": 3, "TKO - Doctor's Stoppage": 1, "Submission": 1, "Decision - Unanimous": 1 }, "loss_methods_grouped": { "KO/TKO": 1 }, "loss_methods_raw": { "KO/TKO": 1 }, "all_bouts_by_method": { "KO/TKO": 5, "Submission": 1, "Decision": 1 } }, "opponent": { "fighter": "Jose Miguel Delgado", "fighter_id": "7d6ceff6747f2de2", "captured_UFC_bouts": 5, "record": { "win": 4, "loss": 1, "draw": 0, "no_contest": 0 }, "win_methods_grouped": { "KO/TKO": 2, "Decision": 2 }, "win_methods_raw": { "KO/TKO": 2, "Decision - Split": 1, "Decision - Unanimous": 1 }, "loss_methods_grouped": { "Decision": 1 }, "loss_methods_raw": { "Decision - Unanimous": 1 }, "all_bouts_by_method": { "KO/TKO": 2, "Decision": 3 } } }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/athlete/jean-silva", "type": "official_current_profile", "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-09-08T06:48:40.177676+00:00", "receipt": "work\\sep12-athlete-pages\\jeansilva.txt", "sha256": "18b533dce5822470adea554f59406590dfff5eb8cad697e2d51fb17d4e90419d" }, { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/athlete/jose-miguel-delgado", "type": "official_current_profile", "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-09-08T06:48:40.177676+00:00", "receipt": "work\\sep12-athlete-pages\\josemigueldelgado.txt", "sha256": "f4c11ed584e7d93b0e5ea99eb4f7873133b6e9951e5ed2c8977cfff7de381500" }, { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/fight-fight-preview-noche-ufc-phoenix-silva-delgado-2026", "type": "official_current_preview", "receipt": "outputs/mma-lab/results/prospective/card-2026-09-12/preview_http_response.html" } ], "core_bout_evidence": { "Jean Silva": [ { "date": "2024-01-13", "opponent": "Westin Wilson", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "0494ebcee93e717b", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/0494ebcee93e717b" }, { "date": "2024-06-29", "opponent": "Charles Jourdain", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "2b7883b304b3df1c", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/2b7883b304b3df1c" }, { "date": "2024-07-13", "opponent": "Drew Dober", "result": "win", "method": "TKO - Doctor's Stoppage", "fight_id": "54de03e04f571735", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/54de03e04f571735" }, { "date": "2025-02-22", "opponent": "Melsik Baghdasaryan", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "8ef7723b6a8b45e1", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/8ef7723b6a8b45e1" }, { "date": "2025-04-12", "opponent": "Bryce Mitchell", "result": "win", "method": "Submission", "fight_id": "8c540eb4afe8c43e", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/8c540eb4afe8c43e" }, { "date": "2025-09-13", "opponent": "Diego Lopes", "result": "loss", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "de1a3734be60e6a1", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/de1a3734be60e6a1" }, { "date": "2026-01-24", "opponent": "Arnold Allen", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "836a188a90e479a5", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/836a188a90e479a5" } ], "Jose Miguel Delgado": [ { "date": "2025-02-15", "opponent": "Connor Matthews", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "2a493f15e079a7ff", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/2a493f15e079a7ff" }, { "date": "2025-06-28", "opponent": "Hyder Amil", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "2f523b757f7f33a2", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/2f523b757f7f33a2" }, { "date": "2025-10-25", "opponent": "Nathaniel Wood", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "bd7394f07247d9ca", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/bd7394f07247d9ca" }, { "date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Andre Fili", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Split", "fight_id": "8bee5192baec71d8", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/8bee5192baec71d8" }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "opponent": "Austin Bashi", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "3bd159c1bed14700", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/3bd159c1bed14700" } ] }, "method_probability": null, "predicted_round": null, "winner_probability_changed": false }, { "a": "Brandon Moreno", "b": "Joseph Morales", "pick": "Brandon Moreno", "method": "Decision", "method_label": "Decision", "conditional_on_existing_picked_winner": true, "reason": "Five of Moreno's eleven captured UFC wins were decisions, including his two latest wins over Albazi and Erceg. A points win is the cautious lean.", "caution": "Moreno has six UFC finish wins too, so decision is only the largest single category. Morales has a prior KO loss and won all three of his captured UFC victories by submission.", "evidence_strength": "low", "strength_meaning": "Qualitative support from the available histories; not a calibrated likelihood or a model score.", "counts": { "picked_fighter": { "fighter": "Brandon Moreno", "fighter_id": "792be9a24df82ed6", "captured_UFC_bouts": 20, "record": { "win": 11, "loss": 7, "draw": 2, "no_contest": 0 }, "win_methods_grouped": { "Submission": 3, "Decision": 5, "KO/TKO": 3 }, "win_methods_raw": { "Submission": 3, "Decision - Split": 1, "Decision - Unanimous": 4, "KO/TKO": 2, "TKO - Doctor's Stoppage": 1 }, "loss_methods_grouped": { "Decision": 6, "KO/TKO": 1 }, "loss_methods_raw": { "Decision - Unanimous": 4, "Decision - Split": 2, "KO/TKO": 1 }, "all_bouts_by_method": { "Submission": 3, "Decision": 13, "KO/TKO": 4 } }, "opponent": { "fighter": "Joseph Morales", "fighter_id": "2fe9032955c2e013", "captured_UFC_bouts": 5, "record": { "win": 3, "loss": 2, "draw": 0, "no_contest": 0 }, "win_methods_grouped": { "Submission": 3 }, "win_methods_raw": { "Submission": 3 }, "loss_methods_grouped": { "KO/TKO": 1, "Decision": 1 }, "loss_methods_raw": { "KO/TKO": 1, "Decision - Split": 1 }, "all_bouts_by_method": { "Submission": 3, "KO/TKO": 1, "Decision": 1 } } }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/athlete/brandon-moreno", "type": "official_current_profile", "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-09-08T06:48:40.177676+00:00", "receipt": "work\\sep12-athlete-pages\\brandonmoreno.txt", "sha256": "07e22ce98d3ef30f98bf31a85d8707be127fc911d1c315367a4f54bae7ab2317" }, { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/athlete/joseph-morales", "type": "official_current_profile", "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-09-08T06:48:40.177676+00:00", "receipt": "work\\sep12-athlete-pages\\josephmorales.txt", "sha256": "2aced9836e674ae1c9735421475009cfbe92203aa8bf7680cfd3021bce133045" }, { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/fight-fight-preview-noche-ufc-phoenix-silva-delgado-2026", "type": "official_current_preview", "receipt": "outputs/mma-lab/results/prospective/card-2026-09-12/preview_http_response.html" } ], "core_bout_evidence": { "Brandon Moreno": [ { "date": "2016-10-01", "opponent": "Louis Smolka", "result": "win", "method": "Submission", "fight_id": "b43dfe6743160a66", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/b43dfe6743160a66" }, { "date": "2016-12-03", "opponent": "Ryan Benoit", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Split", "fight_id": "36830f6eb3c847f5", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/36830f6eb3c847f5" }, { "date": "2017-04-22", "opponent": "Dustin Ortiz", "result": "win", "method": "Submission", "fight_id": "319f3fad278368e6", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/319f3fad278368e6" }, { "date": "2017-08-05", "opponent": "Sergio Pettis", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "253e42894852b26a", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/253e42894852b26a" }, { "date": "2018-05-19", "opponent": "Alexandre Pantoja", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "49b47b5b5f15c7c0", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/49b47b5b5f15c7c0" }, { "date": "2019-09-21", "opponent": "Askar Askarov", "result": "draw", "method": "Decision - Split", "fight_id": "fd3e8f61d8fda839", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/fd3e8f61d8fda839" }, { "date": "2019-12-14", "opponent": "Kai Kara-France", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "1881b1e85cceee13", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/1881b1e85cceee13" }, { "date": "2020-03-14", "opponent": "Jussier Formiga", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "b3c74554c871fbf8", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/b3c74554c871fbf8" }, { "date": "2020-11-21", "opponent": "Brandon Royval", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "8d5ea3bf3be7cb91", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/8d5ea3bf3be7cb91" }, { "date": "2020-12-12", "opponent": "Deiveson Figueiredo", "result": "draw", "method": "Decision - Majority", "fight_id": "c258996570faeec9", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/c258996570faeec9" }, { "date": "2021-06-12", "opponent": "Deiveson Figueiredo", "result": "win", "method": "Submission", "fight_id": "0f51869f98afa6c0", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/0f51869f98afa6c0" }, { "date": "2022-01-22", "opponent": "Deiveson Figueiredo", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "cddd3d4febe097f8", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/cddd3d4febe097f8" }, { "date": "2022-07-30", "opponent": "Kai Kara-France", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "5a1ce88ec1f75160", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/5a1ce88ec1f75160" }, { "date": "2023-01-21", "opponent": "Deiveson Figueiredo", "result": "win", "method": "TKO - Doctor's Stoppage", "fight_id": "0462bcc27498f7c4", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/0462bcc27498f7c4" }, { "date": "2023-07-08", "opponent": "Alexandre Pantoja", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Split", "fight_id": "0f24f3bc1b39ea45", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/0f24f3bc1b39ea45" }, { "date": "2024-02-24", "opponent": "Brandon Royval", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Split", "fight_id": "74f5cbecac011abb", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/74f5cbecac011abb" }, { "date": "2024-11-02", "opponent": "Amir Albazi", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "799acf3ae8a5df0a", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/799acf3ae8a5df0a" }, { "date": "2025-03-29", "opponent": "Steve Erceg", "result": "win", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "33e301872e2b5680", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/33e301872e2b5680" }, { "date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Tatsuro Taira", "result": "loss", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "fbbb9e72900b71f5", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/fbbb9e72900b71f5" }, { "date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Lone'er Kavanagh", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Unanimous", "fight_id": "1330b5c21269fe92", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/1330b5c21269fe92" } ], "Joseph Morales": [ { "date": "2017-08-05", "opponent": "Robert Sanchez", "result": "win", "method": "Submission", "fight_id": "a3723f0f672b0912", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/a3723f0f672b0912" }, { "date": "2018-02-03", "opponent": "Deiveson Figueiredo", "result": "loss", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "1fd5bf36c42ff1a2", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/1fd5bf36c42ff1a2" }, { "date": "2018-11-10", "opponent": "Eric Shelton", "result": "loss", "method": "Decision - Split", "fight_id": "3210723fbb018fa7", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/3210723fbb018fa7" }, { "date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Alibi Idiris", "result": "win", "method": "Submission", "fight_id": "68c423c7119004f3", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/68c423c7119004f3" }, { "date": "2025-11-08", "opponent": "Matt Schnell", "result": "win", "method": "Submission", "fight_id": "f7e9bd2d6f81aeae", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/f7e9bd2d6f81aeae" } ] }, "method_probability": null, "predicted_round": null, "winner_probability_changed": false }, { "a": "Tommy McMillen", "b": "Marwan Rahiki", "pick": "Tommy McMillen", "method": "KO/TKO", "method_label": "KO/TKO", "conditional_on_existing_picked_winner": true, "reason": "Both of McMillen's UFC wins ended by strikes, against Zecchini and Montes. His observed UFC winning methods support a TKO lean.", "caution": "This is only two UFC bouts. Rahiki is also 2\u20130 with two stoppages and no captured UFC loss, so there is no demonstrated UFC stoppage vulnerability to rely on.", "evidence_strength": "low", "strength_meaning": "Qualitative support from the available histories; not a calibrated likelihood or a model score.", "counts": { "picked_fighter": { "fighter": "Tommy McMillen", "fighter_id": "6b0a6def604de298", "captured_UFC_bouts": 2, "record": { "win": 2, "loss": 0, "draw": 0, "no_contest": 0 }, "win_methods_grouped": { "KO/TKO": 2 }, "win_methods_raw": { "KO/TKO": 2 }, "loss_methods_grouped": {}, "loss_methods_raw": {}, "all_bouts_by_method": { "KO/TKO": 2 } }, "opponent": { "fighter": "Marwan Rahiki", "fighter_id": "6eedb757f13b9978", "captured_UFC_bouts": 2, "record": { "win": 2, "loss": 0, "draw": 0, "no_contest": 0 }, "win_methods_grouped": { "KO/TKO": 2 }, "win_methods_raw": { "KO/TKO": 2 }, "loss_methods_grouped": {}, "loss_methods_raw": {}, "all_bouts_by_method": { "KO/TKO": 2 } } }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/athlete/tommy-mcmillen", "type": "official_current_profile", "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-09-08T06:48:40.514645+00:00", "receipt": "work\\sep12-athlete-pages\\tommymcmillen.txt", "sha256": "a2012eee94b50b73da6ea297200381bd29500c486083da686db68fc45cfc1df0" }, { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/athlete/marwan-rahiki", "type": "official_current_profile", "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-09-08T06:48:40.527363+00:00", "receipt": "work\\sep12-athlete-pages\\marwanrahiki.txt", "sha256": "65be00880239716893b664915a125948db94f3d8e21acb18fc9d99ef59bd519b" }, { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/fight-fight-preview-noche-ufc-phoenix-silva-delgado-2026", "type": "official_current_preview", "receipt": "outputs/mma-lab/results/prospective/card-2026-09-12/preview_http_response.html" } ], "core_bout_evidence": { "Tommy McMillen": [ { "date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Manolo Zecchini", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "c27bec45d5a29a2c", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/c27bec45d5a29a2c" }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "opponent": "Alberto Montes", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "c64c6ba6eb1e1d06", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/c64c6ba6eb1e1d06" } ], "Marwan Rahiki": [ { "date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Harry Hardwick", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "e0acd0cf4930671b", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/e0acd0cf4930671b" }, { "date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Ollie Schmid", "result": "win", "method": "KO/TKO", "fight_id": "cfc884a249141cba", "source_url": "http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/cfc884a249141cba" } ] }, "method_probability": null, "predicted_round": null, "winner_probability_changed": false }, { "a": "Manon Fiorot", "b": "Alexa Grasso", "pick": "Manon Fiorot", "method": "Decision", "method_label": "Decision", "conditional_on_existing_picked_winner": true, "reason": "Five of Fiorot's eight UFC wins were decisions. Four of Grasso's five UFC defeats also went to the judges.", "caution": "Fiorot stopped Jasudavicius in her latest bout, and Grasso returned with a knockout of Barber. 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