Has an opinion.
The host. Reads the engine’s picks, translates the evidence and makes the Creator regret providing him with a mouth.
MMA PICKS & QUESTIONABLE COMPANY
We gave a fight engine
a personality.
That was the first mistake.
Meet Professor Reggie. He has an AI fight engine, a Creator who thinks he can beat it, and a Clerk who refuses to delete the losing picks. You can see how this has become difficult for him.
13 picks on record. No paired contests scored yet.
Even the boasting requires paperwork.
REFERENCESNOT CHECKED
01 / 01
THE CURRENT CARD / NOCHE UFC
Right.
Who’s winning?
Thirteen calls. Each comes with the case for it and the part that could make me look daft. Start with whichever fight you’re already arguing about.
“I recommend reading the awkward bit before composing your victory speech.”Make him show his working ↓Or see all thirteen picks ↗
THE PICK CURRENTLY ON MY DESK01 / 13
OUR PICK
Jean Silva
OPPONENT
Jose Miguel Delgado
RAW WIN ESTIMATE51.2%
IF THE PICK WINSKO/TKOSeparate method lean
NOCHE UFC / 12 SEP 2026 UNSCORED
SOMEONE DID ACTUAL WORK
There is, regrettably,
paperwork.
Pick a dot. Find the flaw.
13 PICKS / TWO PERSPECTIVESSILVA · 51.2%
Captured UFC bouts · picked fighter
Raw probability of the picked fighter winning →
A higher estimate does not mean stronger evidence. Bout counts describe the captured history, not its quality.
THE PROFESSOR’S WORKING
Jean Silva
Almost evenSUPPORTING MATCHUP HISTORY
CAPTURED UFC BOUTS
Open the complete matchup ↗HOW THIS QUESTIONABLE ESTABLISHMENT WORKS
Four aspects.
One HR incident.
Attaches a footnote.
The engine uses captured fight history to estimate a winner. The Professor insists you also see what the number cannot tell you.
Finds the problem.
The strongest case against the pick. Small samples. Awkward matchups. He enjoys this part more than is strictly necessary.
Keeps the evidence.
Original picks, corrections and results. “I nearly picked the other one” goes in correspondence, not the win column.
HAS IT EARNED THE CONFIDENCE?
The ego arrived first.
The record has to follow.
Engine 3 was developed after examining earlier test errors. Its later historical replay is exploratory. We need new, future results to find out how well it holds up.
Our first recorded future card is Noche UFC on 12 September 2026. As of this edition, it is unscored. One card cannot establish a stable success rate or prove improvement.
Read the evaluation rules ↗AN EXPLANATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED
Questions the Professor
hoped you wouldn’t ask.
Is 63% a prediction or a personality trait?+
It is the model’s raw estimate of the selected fighter winning. A higher number does not make the evidence complete or the outcome certain. The estimates are experimental, and some rest on only one or two captured UFC appearances.
And the method of victory?+
It is a separate judgement based on the available histories, conditional on the picked fighter winning. A 63% winner estimate beside “Submission” does not mean a 63% chance of winning by submission. The winner model has not tested these method predictions.
Is the written case the model explaining itself?+
The case presents relevant matchup evidence. It is not a feature attribution or a causal explanation of the model’s output. We show supporting evidence and counterevidence so readers can examine the forecast for themselves.
What happens when the history is wrong?+
We label the update and retain the original. In the current briefing, one additional Rongzhu result changes Garcia’s estimate from 64.0% to 60.5% in a separate calculation. The original sealed forecast remains available, and the incomplete statistics are disclosed.
See the correction and calculation ↗Is Reggie an actual person?+
No. He’s our fictional AI host, built on Hermes Agent. “Professor” is part of the character. He insists on the Brazilian pronunciation; the title is not a claim to real academic or BJJ credentials.
THE BACK ROOM
The Creator’s putting
me in a group chat.
I’ll be there to talk through the picks. He’s coming too, so we can settle the important question: which of us gets to be unbearable on Sunday?
Telegram group not open yet. We’ll announce access and pricing here.